Getting to a post-2015 framework What are the scenarios?

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Getting to a post-2015 framework:What are the scenarios?

"Getting to a post-2015 framework:What are the scenarios?" was written in July 2011 by Amy Pollard of CAFOD.

Brief review of the MDGs

The Millenium Development Goals were developed in a time of economic prosperity and geopolitical stability (1990-2000) where the G7 was a dominant force and consensus on development issues were being built. These conditions are no longer present: the financial crisis accelerated the reshaping of the world while international power is being diffused, in East Asia mostly. New issues, such as climate change, have emerged and might make it harder for countries to achieve consensus. Building a framework for the development agenda beyond 2015 is, to say the least, challenging.

Future scenarios of a development framework

Pollard defines 4 scenarios of a post-2015 development agenda. They are models to achieve a development agenda, not predictions and could be implemented simultaneously.

Scenario 1: A clearly led, legitimate framework

The September 2011 UN Secretary General's Report on the MDGs sets out the planning for a UN-led post 2015 development process with a timetable and consultative process. The Rio +20 Earth Summit constitute a key step in that process as the UN will formally launch a major inclusive and participatory process for beyond 2015. This scenario is considered as the ideal one, for the perspectives of those who consider that any post-2015 framework should have a maximum of legitimacy, ownership from countries and buy-in. That process will diverge from the one that has led to the current [Millenium Development Goals] in 2000. One downside of it, is that the inclusiveness might led to a less ambitious framework.

Scenario 2: A framework from the inside-out

Experts insiders will draw up a framework and gradually build it in a formal structure, as done in 2000.. The authority of the world leaders will compete with the ones of the experts. Lack of legitimacy might be a critique of this scenario but it could be more ambitious than scenario 1.

Scenario 3: A framework from the outside-in

In this scenario, a coalition of outsiders (CSOs, academics, policy entrepreneurs etc) agree a framework then gradually persuade governments to adopt it. With no clear UN led process for post-2015, a range of actors from civil society, academics, policy entrepreneurs, the private sector and others develop their own proposals for a post-2015 framework. The proposals of CSOs is inevitable but agreeing to one framework for post-2015 is the challenge. In case, the UN declines to lead the development agenda, there's still the possibility that it will mandate its design to members of the civil society and academics.

Scenario 4: A jigsaw framework

Bits of a new framework are brokered one-by-one through the G20, G77, UNFCCC and other international policy processes. They are then slotted together to form a new framework. The UN do not lead strongly enough on a post-2015 framework, and new actors and other institutional structures step in to fill the void.

Scenario 5: Failure

The [Millenium Development Goals] are a one-off initiative in this scenario. Negociations for a post-2015 framework might fail and this bleak scenario is a real danger for progress in the world. Looking starkly at the scale of the challenge, there is no question that securing a post-2015 framework will require a significant global effort. In no sense should a successor to the MDGs be assumed.

See also

• Stiglitz Commission
• Millennium Development Goals
• Overseas Development Institute

References

Pollard, Amy. 2011. "Getting to a post-2015 framework:What are the scenarios?" CAFOD.

External links